1961~2013年鲁西南雷暴时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Thunderstorm Days from 1961 to 2013 in South-West of Shandong Province

摘要: 选取1961~2013年鲁西南9个地面气象观测站雷暴资料，统计分析了鲁西南地区雷暴日数、雷暴初日、终日、间隔日数分布特征及变化规律。结果表明：1961~2013年鲁西南地区年平均雷暴日数在20.8~24.8 d之间，由菏泽市区分别向西北和东南递减。雷暴天气一般都在4月中旬至下旬初开始，到9月中旬至下旬初结束；雷暴初日及终日基本上呈现自南向北逐渐推迟的分布态势。鲁西南平均雷暴日数随时间呈显著的递减变化(−2.5 d/10年)。各站累积平均雷暴日为1210.3 d，以夏季最多占78.1%。逐月平均雷暴日与降水量、温度呈同相单峰型，显现出雷、雨、热同季的关联性。鲁西南年平均雷暴初终间日数在145.2~157.3 d之间。雷暴初日随时间呈不显著的趋前，雷暴终日随时间呈不显著的趋后，间隔日数随时间呈不显著的递增趋势。1979年是鲁西南雷暴日数减少突变的时间点，1979年之前在多年均值以上减少，1979年之后则是在多年均值以下继续减少。

Abstract: Based on the observation data from 9 meteorological stations in south-west of Shandong province from 1961 to 2013, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of thunderstorm days were analyzed. The results showed that the number of annual mean thunderstorm days was between 20.8 and 24.8 d in south-west of Shandong province from 1961 to 2014, and it decreased from Heze city to northwest and southeast. Thunderstorm weather usually starts in the middle of April, and ends in the early late September. It delayed gradually from south to north in the start and the end time of Thunderstorm weather. Average thunderstorm days were significantly decreasing over time (−2.5 d/10a). Cumulative average thunderstorm days were 1210.3 d, up to  78.1% in summer. Monthly average thunderstorm and precipitation and temperature are in the phase of unimodal type, showing the same relevance among thunder, rain, and heat. The number of annual mean thunderstorm days between the start and end ranged from 145.2 to 157.3 d in south-west of Shandong province. The starting time of the thunderstorm is in advance with time, opposite to the end time, and the interval number does not increase significantly over time. Thunderstorm days’ reduction changed suddenly in 1979, which was above the average before 1979, while below the average after.