中国城市规模及其城市化水平的过去、现状及未来

The Past, Present and Future of the City Scale and Urbanization Level in China

摘要: 城市在区域发展中的作用日益增强，城镇化将是我国未来十年决策层的战略着眼点和中央政策主轴。本文基于人口普查数据和城市统计年鉴数据，以不同规模城市的分布格局和城市化水平为研究对象，全面揭示了中国不同规模城市空间分布格局及其城市化水平的过去、现状，并运用Logistic模型系统和联合国法，预测模拟了中国不同规模城市未来二十年的分布格局和城市化水平，研究表明：1) 1990~2000年间，从中国城市的数量特征来看，人口20万以上的城市个数均快速增加，城市化率基本稳定，人口小于20万的小城市个数减少，城市化率提高了14.70%；从空间分布来看，我国城市空间布局基本稳定，呈现“东密西疏”的地域特征，城市数量和人口增加较为明显的区域主要集中在长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大城市群，以及山东半岛城市群、武汉都市圈、成渝城市群；2) 2000~2010年，中国城市个数基本稳定，大城市个数增加，中小城市个数减少，城市化率提高了15个百分点，东部地区城市数量占全国总量的1/3强，成为中国城市的主要集聚区；3) 2020和2030年，中国的城市个数及城市化水平将有显著提高，城市化率将分别达到57.55%和68.32%，城市布局将更加集聚，其中，东部地区将集聚更多的超大城市，其吸纳的人口规模和占比将明显提高，小城市将成为西部地区发展的主要增长极。

Abstract: City plays an increasingly important role in regional development, and urbanization will be the strategic focus and central policy of the decision-making level over the next decade. Based on the census data and the urban statistical yearbook data, and taking the distribution pattern of different scale cities and urbanization levels as study object, this paper reveals the past and present of the spatial distribution pattern and urbanization level of different scale cities in China. And Logistic model and United Nations method are used to forecast the distribution pattern and urbanization level of different scale cities in China in the next 20 years. The study shows that: 1) From 1990 to 2000, in terms of the quantitative characteristic of cities in China, the number of cities with population over 200,000 increased rapidly and the urbanization rate was stable. The number of small cities with less than 200 thousand population decreased, while the urbanization rate in-creased by 14.70%. The spatial distribution pattern of our nation’s cities is basically stable and the geographical feature is that the east is dense while the west is sparse. The number of cities in-creased obviously in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the Pearl River Delta urban ag-glomeration and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations, as well as the Shandong Penin-sula Urban Agglomeration, Wuhan Metropolitan Area and Chengyu Urban Agglomeration. 2) From 2000 to 2010, the number of cities in China was basically stable, the number of large cities was in-creasing, and the number of small and medium sized cities was reduced; the urbanization rate in-creased by 15 percentage points. And the number of cities in the eastern region accounted for 1/3 of the whole country, becoming the main gathering area of Chinese cities. 3) From 2020 to 2030, the number of cities and the urbanization level in China will significantly increase and the urbanization rate will reach 57.55% and 68.32% respectively. Urban layout will be more concentrated, of which the eastern region will gather more megacities, and its absorption of population and proportion will be significantly improved. Small cities will become the major growth pole of the western region.