小区开放对道路通行的影响

Effect of Community Opening on Road Traffic

摘要: 本文旨在建立数学模型，就小区结构、周围道路结构、车流量等因素定量分析小区开放对周围道路的通行能力的影响。通过调查统计，我们构建了三种类型的小区，并用我们的评价指标体系进行评价，得到小区开放对周边道路的影响是利大于弊。而且，我们还建立了BP神经网络模型用来解决道路通行能力的问题，元胞自动机模型用来模拟车辆在道路上行驶的情况。最后BP神经网络模型与元胞自动机模型结合，生成车辆通行能力的模型，并用Matlab软件对其进行仿真模拟，得出在小区开放的前提下，车辆通行与小区周边道路的状况密切相关。随后，我们以小区结构为变量，周边道路结构和车流量为定量，结合相关数据，算出小区开放前后的小区周边道路的通行能力。通过对小区开放前后相关数据的对比，得出小区开放后，周边道路行驶能力大大提高以及道路行驶能力与小区结构、周边道路结构和车流量成正比关系的结论。最后，我们从交通通行的角度总结出小区开放后的一些有利因素和不利因素，并针对这些因素，向城市规划和交通管理部门分别提出关于小区开放的建议。比如，对城市规划部门提出开放小区，要做到小区出让地块或独立开发的面积，应以不大于2.25公顷为宜。

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to establish a mathematical model to analyze the influence of the opening on the traffic capacity of the surrounding roads by the factors such as the cell structure, the struc-ture of the surrounding roads and the traffic flow. Through investigation and statistics, we construct three types of residential areas, using our evaluation index system to evaluate, and come to a conclusion that the impact of opening community to the surrounding roads does more good than harm. Moreover, we have established a BP neural network model to solve the problem of road traffic capacity; cellular automata model is used to simulate the traffic on the road. Finally, com-bined with the BP neural network model and the cellular automaton model, we generate traffic capacity model, and carry on the simulation with Matlab software, and then draw a conclusion that in the premise of opening the community, traffic is closely related to the status of road. Subse-quently, we take the community structure as the variable, the surrounding road structure and traffic flow for quantitative, combined with the relevant data, to calculate the capacity of the sur-rounding road of the community before and after opening of community. By comparison of the re-levant data before and after the opening the community, we obtain the plot that the surrounding roads and road capacity have greatly improved after the opening, and the road capacity is propor-tional to community structure, the surrounding road structure and traffic flow. Finally, we sum-marize some favorable and unfavorable factors after opening the community from the perspective of traffic. Aiming at these factors, we put forward the suggestion on the community opening to the city planning and traffic management departments. For example, to city planning department, it is appropriate that if opening community, the transfer of plots or the area of independent exploitation should be less than 2.25 hectares.