典型区域经济周期与用电需求周期关系特征研究

Study on the Relationship between the Economic Cycle and the Electricity Demand Cycle

摘要: 探究电力与经济发展关系，为电力发展规划和电力相关产业政策支撑科学依据，推进电力与经济的可持续发展十分重要。文章利用协整理论和谱分析理论，研究了1990~2015年华北地区、华东地区、西北地区和广东省电力与经济需求的周期关系。研究表明，各典型地区电力周期与经济周期存在长期均衡关系；发达地区经济周期较长，具有10年以上的长周期；各地区电力发展领先经济发展，经济较发达地区电力设施完善，其用电需求周期领先于经济周期的现象更为显著。

Abstract: The relationship between electric power and economic development is accurately grasped, which can support the scientific basis for electric power development planning and electric power industry policy, and promote the sustainable development of electric power and economy. Using the theory of co-integration and spectrum analysis, this paper studies the periodicity of electric power and economic demand in North China, East China, Northwest China and Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2015. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the power cycle and the economic cycle in the typical regions. The developed regions have a long economic cycle with a long period of more than 10 years. Electric power development leads the economic development in all regions, and the power facilities in the economically developed regions are well developed. Demand cycle ahead of the economic cycle of the phenomenon is more significant.