中俄印温室气体排放的指标分解和电力需求展望

Index Decomposition of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Prospect of Electricity Demand in China, Russia and India

摘要: 如何降低CO₂ (carbon dioxide)排放成本是工业化国家长期面临的问题，因此有必要深入了解三国碳排放的主要影响因素，通过研究中俄印三国的能源与电力市场现状和这三国的电力发展状况，再运用LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)模型选取人口、GDP (Gross Domestic Product)、能源强度、能源结构碳强度为碳排放的四个分解因素，对影响三国碳排放的因素进行分析，具体分析三国的碳排放。并量化分析其影响效应和作用强度，评估各种因素在各国碳排放中的贡献程度，找出促进或者抑制碳排放的关键因素，分析三国碳排放的特征，为三国因地制宜地制定能源发展和节能减排政策提供科学依据。

Abstract: How to reduce the CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emission cost is a long-term problem for the industrialized countries. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the main influence factors of the carbon emissions of the three countries. By studying the energy and electricity markets of the three countries and the power development of the three countries, the four factors of carbon emission are resolved into population, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), energy intensity and energy structure by using LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) model. The carbon emissions of the three countries are analyzed concretely. This paper also quantifies its impact and intensity, assesses the contribution of various factors in the country’s carbon emissions, identifies the key factors pro-moting or inhibiting the carbon emissions, and analyzes the three carbon emissions’ characteristics of the three countries, to provide a scientific basis for making energy development, and energy conservation and emission reduction policy accordingly.