乘坡河流域洪水预报模型比较研究

Comparative Study of Flood Forecasting Models at Chengpo River Basin

摘要: 中小流域山洪资料积累较少，洪水预报方案编制困难。针对该问题，以南方湿润地区海南乘坡河流域为例，选取以蓄满产流为基础的集总式新安江模型和分布式TOPMODEL模型开展洪水模拟研究。结果表明，对于海南湿润地区，新安江模型和TOPMODEL模型产汇流模拟效果都较好，均可用于指导中小流域进行洪水预报预警。但相对而言，前期土壤较为湿润时，新安江模型的模拟效果较好；对于大洪水及时间序列较长的洪水而言，TOPMODEL模型的模拟效果较好。

Abstract: The accumulation of flash floods is low and the preparation of flood forecasting schemes is difficult. To address this issue, we take the Chengpo river basin in Hainan, one of the humid areas in south part of China. The lumped Xinanjiang model based on the runoff generation and the distributed TOPMODEL model were selected for flood simulation. The results of both models are good for humid regions in Hainan. These two models can be used to guide the small and medium-sized river basin for flood forecasting and early warning. Generally speaking, Xinanjiang model is more accurate when the pre-soil is wetter; the TOPMODEL model performs better for the larger flood events.