中国2030年碳排放达峰研究进展

Studies on the Carbon Emission Peak of China in 2030: A Review

摘要: 中国碳排放峰值是当前国际社会关注的焦点，本文通过文献调研和分析，梳理了这方面的研究进展。目前，碳排放峰值研究的主要手段是模型模拟，其中比较常用的有三类模型，分别是指标分解法模型、自上而下的模型以及系统优化模型。研究发现，我国碳排放可在2030年左右达峰，其前提条件是：积极调整产业结构、能源结构，加快转变发展模式，鼓励推广清洁能源，以及恰当增强碳汇能力；在国家的宏观调度下，各省(市)通过制定“因地制宜”的达峰方案，也均可在2030年左右实现碳排放达峰。不过，模型及其参数对未来社会经济发展情景的适应性、本地化模型的性能以及因地缘环境演变导致的模拟不确定性等还需进一步评估。

Abstract: The carbon emission peak of China is an international focus. Here, we carried out a literature review for the studies on the carbon emission peak of China in 2030 to summarize the study pro- gresses. The literature review shows that these studies mostly were achieved by using models. There are generally three categories of models, which are decomposition models, top-down models and system optimized models. These model-based studies show that carbon emissions of China would peak around 2030 in the conditions of changing energy structure and industrial structure, transforming the development mode, promoting clean energy and appropriately increasing carbon sequestration ability. At the level of provinces, the peak of carbon emissions would as well as occur around 2030 with the supports of localized development road under the national macro policies. However, we should pay attentions on the uncertainties of these model studies. These uncertainties might be derived from the model parameters, performances of entire model, and geopolitical conditions.