基于中韩自贸区视角—中国对韩国服装出口贸易的相关性分析

Based on the Perspective of China-Korea Free Trade Area—Analysis on the Relativity of China’s Export Trade to Korea

摘要: 《中韩自由贸易协定》于2015年生效，这是我国迄今为止对外签署的覆盖议题范围最广、涉及国别贸易额最大的自贸协定。本文主要分析了中韩服装贸易现状及其影响因素，利用eviews软件对中国向韩国出口的服装贸易额、两国GDP乘积、贸易便利化指数、汇率指数等指标进行了ADF和协整检验，构建OLS回归模型。通过逐步回归法剔除严重共线性的变量，得出中国对韩国出口服装贸易与各因素的关系。同时，运用回归模型计算中国向韩国出口服装贸易的理论值与实际值，进行比较得到双方贸易存在潜力空间。

Abstract: The China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into force in 2015, which is the widest range of issues covered by our country so far, involving the largest trade volume in the country. In this study, we analyze the present situation and the related factors of Chinese and Korean apparel trade. We use the eviews software to carry out ADF and co-integration test on the export volume of China’s clothing to Korea, the product of GDP, trade facilitation index and exchange rate index etc. and build OLS regression model. By stepwise regression method to eliminate collinearity variables, it is concluded that China’s exports to South Korean apparel trading relationship with various factors. At the same time, the theoretical value and practical value of Chinese clothing exports to South Korea is calculated by using the regression model. We predict that there is a large potential in the apparel trade between China and South Korea.