反腐败对经济增长影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Anti-Corruption on Economic Growth

摘要: 为研究中共十八大以来的反腐败力度对广东省经济增长的影响，本项目通过下载和提取最高人民法院设立的“中国裁判文书网”中，中国广东省自2009~2016年间2369份裁判文书中的反腐败变量，整理出广东省市级面板数据，构建反腐败力度评价体系，运用计量经济中面板数据研究方法实证分析研究反腐败对广东省经济增长的影响。经过Hausman检验，采用随机效应模型分析发现，反腐败力度对经济增长有短期抑制效应。这预示着我国至少广东省腐败情形已经十分严重。因此我们要直面反腐败短期可能带来的抑制经济的作用，在加大反腐败力度和保持高效的经济增长之间保持平衡。

Abstract: To observe how much degree corruption had infiltrated into Chinese society and how the anti- corruption movement affected economic growth, we mined data from a newly established full- scale judgment paper database “China Judgments Online”. By collecting detailed micro information from all 2369 pieces of judgment paper from 2010 to 2016 in Guangdong province, we summarized the information collected into a panel data set with 21 cities and 6 years and created a comprehensive evaluation index variable to measure corruption activity. After running Hausman test, we decided to use random effect model in panel data regression to obtain the result. And the conclusion was that the enforcement of anti-corruption movement was negatively related to economic growth in short term.