我国碳交易价格与石油价格互动关系的VAR模型分析

VAR Model Analysis of the Interaction between Carbon Trading Price and Crude Price in China

摘要: 根据国内外学者的已有研究，碳市场与石油市场之间有目不可分的关系，本文探究国内的碳交易市场与石油市场的相互影响机制，选取中国原油市场交易价格和北京市碳交易试点的成交价格，建立VAR模型，构建脉冲响应函数以及方差分解，定量分析碳交易和石油交易的价格影响机制。通过VAR得出结论，碳交易市场价格和石油交易价格指数的滞后期都对彼此存在影响，但影响不大。我国的碳交易市场还处于起步阶段，需要更积极的政策来刺激市场的活性。

Abstract: Based on the existing research of scholars at home and abroad, it has inseparable relationship between carbon market and petroleum market. This article is explored the interaction mechanism of carbon trading market and crude oil market in China. According to the market transaction price of crude market in China and transaction value of carbon trading pilots in Beijing to set up VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition, and use quantitative analysis methods to explain the interaction mechanism. Here is the conclusion from VAR that there’s a time lag of carbon trading price and oil trading price index, which influences each other, but just a little. The carbon trading market is in the early stage in China, it needs more positive policy to stimulate the market to be active.