我国粮食作物播种面积的影响因素

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Grain Sown Area in China

摘要: 随着国家经济的迅速发展，粮食生产作为其重要基础，不仅关系到国家的生存，而且关系到国民经济的发展，粮食作物播种面积是保证国家粮食生产的重要途径，研究粮食作物播种面积具有重要意义。不少学者认为粮食净进口量、城乡收入比、农业机械总动力、第一产业就业人口、化肥施用量这五个因素是影响粮食作物播种面积的主要因素，为综合度量粮食作物播种面积的影响程度，本文增加了受灾面积、有效灌溉面积、农业总产值、粮食产量变量来进一步分析。由于这些变量影响粮食种植面积有不确定和动态性，为更好的研究它们之间的关系，本文采用多元线性回归法、逐步回归法得出农业机械总动力、受灾面积、粮食净进口量、粮食产量对粮食作物播种面积有促进作用，城乡收入比、农业总产值对粮食作物播种面积有抑制作用，并据此对今后粮食播种面积的发展提出了建议。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the national economy, grain production which is as an important basis is not only related to the survival of the country, but also the development of the national economy. The grain sown area is an important approach to ensure the national grain production; therefore, it is of great significance to study the grain sown area. Many scholars believe that the net imports of grain, ratio of urban-rural income, amount of agricultural machinery, employment population in the primary industry, and chemical fertilizer inputs are the main factors affecting the grain sown area. In order to comprehensively measure the impact of various factors on the grain sown area, the affected area, effective irrigated area, output value of agriculture and the grain yield variable are increased for further analysis in this paper. However, these variables are uncertain and dynamic in terms of affecting the grain sown area, and for better study of the relationship between them, multi factor line regression method and the stepwise regression method are adopted, and the results show that the amount of agricultural machinery, affected area, net imports of grain and grain yield play a role in helping grain sown area, while ratio of urban-rural income and output value of agriculture have a negative effect on the grain sown area. Finally, according to the analysis, we give some suggestions for the further development of grain sown area.