河北巨鹿近58年(1959~2016)气候变化与干旱特征分析
Analysis of Climate Change and Drought Characteristics of Julu in Hebei Province during 1959~2016
DOI: 10.12677/CCRL.2017.64029, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 1,347  浏览: 2,851  科研立项经费支持
作者: 纪华磊*, 谷海停, 路聪慧, 安 兰, 张涛：河北省巨鹿县气象局，河北 巨鹿
关键词: 气候变化；气温；降水；干旱；标准化降水指数(SPI)；Climate Change； Temperature； Precipitation； Drought； Standardized Precipitation Index
摘要: 根据河北省巨鹿县近58年(1959~2016)气候资料，采用线性倾向方法，应用标准化降水指数(SPI)，分析了巨鹿县气候变化与干旱特征。结果表明：巨鹿年平均气温总体上呈上升趋势，其倾向率为0.19℃/10a，但在20世纪60、70年代出现了下降趋势；年降水量变化倾向率为−7.38 mm/10a，呈现不显著的下降趋势。持续3个月及以上的干旱(SPI3)发生频率达到51%，干旱发生时间以4~10月为主，平均强度达到中旱及以上的干旱发生频率为41%。影响本地农业的干旱发生频率高，强度大。21世纪以来，干旱发生次数虽然减少，但总体上干旱没有出现明显的减少趋势。
Abstract: Based on the climate data of Julu county, Hebei province during 1959~2016, the characteristic of climate change and drought were analyzed by linear regression and SPI (Standardized Precipi-tation Index). The results showed that the annual mean air temperature increased significantly with a rate 0.19℃/10a from 1959~2016, but has a decline period during 1960-1970, and the annual total precipitation changed insignificantly at −7.38 mm/10a. The frequency of drought (SPI3: SPI of 3 months scale) lasted for three months or above was 51%, its occurrence focused mainly from April to October, and the frequency of drought with its average intensity at moder-ate or above was 41%. The droughts with effects on agriculture have high frequency and severi-ty. There is no decreased trend significantly for drought during the last 58 years.
文章引用：纪华磊, 谷海停, 路聪慧, 安兰, 张涛. 河北巨鹿近58年(1959~2016)气候变化与干旱特征分析[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2017, 6(4): 265-272. https://doi.org/10.12677/CCRL.2017.64029

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