期货市场交易对我国货币流动性的影响—基于1998~2014年度数据的VAR模型实证检验

The Impact of Futures Trading Volume on the Domestic Currency Liquidity—Empirical Analysis on the Data from 1998 to 2004 Using VAR Model

摘要: 本文试图通过阐述全球期货市场发展和我国期货市场发展历程，分析我国目前期货市场状态。通过经典货币理论分析我国货币流通现状，解释近几年我国货币流通状况。然后，利用实证分析的方法阐述我国货币流动性黑洞以及期货市场交易和我国货币流动性的关系。根据相关性分析、单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验得到期货市场与货币流通速度的显著关系，并解释目前我国的货币流通黑洞状态。本文最后将会对我国期货市场交易以及货币流动性做出总结，并阐述展望。

Abstract: This paper attempts to state the development of the global futures market and the domestic futures market and analyze Chinese current future market situation. Also, this paper analyzes Chinese current monetary circulation through classic monetary theories and explains the Chinese monetary circulation in recent years. Next, it explains the relationship among the domestic currency liquid black hole, the future market trade and the Chinese currency circulation by using the empirical analysis method. It gains the relationship between the futures market and the currency circulation volume according to the correlation relationship, unit-root test and Granger test and then explains the current situation of Chinese currency circulation black hole. In the end, there comes to a conclu-sion about future development among the Chinese futures trade.