CIMP5气候系统模式对中国冬季气温变化模拟评估及未来情景预估

Assessment and Projection of Winter Temperatures in China by CMIP5 Climate System Models

摘要: 本文评估和预估了CMIP5气候系统模式对中国冬季气温变化的模拟结果。6个模式模拟的历史资料大多可以反映中国区域冬季气温一致增暖的变化趋势，并且北方的增暖更强。在冷暖期的突变时间点上，BCC-CSM-1.1模式模拟的历史资料的EOF1标准化时间系数的突变时间点与中国冷暖期的划分时间完全吻合。三种情景下的模式结果表明未来中国区域的冬季气温仍呈现上升趋势，并叠加有年代际变化，其中停滞期大致在2010~2025年期间结束，之后中国冬季气温继续加速上升。

Abstract: The simulated capability of 6 global system modes released by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is tested for the wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over China. The 6 models can reasonably reproduce the evolution of wintertime SAT over China during the 1960-2005 in capturing the long term trend of warming especially in the North China. The models of BCC-CSM 1.1 can detect the regime shift in the EOF1 corresponding normalized time coefficient of the wintertime SAT over China. 6 model scenario projections of future climate change during 2006-2035 indicate that the wintertime SAT over China would continue to rise, while the intensities are scenario-dependent. The results indicate that the winter temperature shows an interdecadal variability superimposed on the long-term warming trend, with the hiatus period ending around 2010-2025. After that the wintertime SAT over China will increase warming.