基于贝叶斯学习模型的天然气价格双边谈判研究

Bilateral Negotiation of Natural Gas Price Based on Bayesian Learning Model

摘要: 根据大用户向天然气供应商购买天然气的价格双边谈判的特点，将贝叶斯学习模型引入到谈判的博弈过程中。通过贝叶斯学习，双方能更精确的预测对方的报价，提高博弈的有效性。算例结果表明，供气商和大用户运用贝叶斯学习模型进行博弈可以有效提高谈判效率。

Abstract: Depending on the characteristic of bilateral negotiations on the price of natural gas between supplier and consumer, the Bayesian learning model was introduced to the negotiation game. By Bayesian learning, both sides can predict each other's offer more accurately and improve the effectiveness of the game. Calculation example proved that the Bayesian learning model can effectively improve the efficiency of negotiations.