基于MISOHRM模型的非一致性洪水频率计算方法及应用IV：西江中游堤防防洪能力影响评价

Algorithm and Application of Inconsistent Flood Frequency Based on the MISOHRM Model (IV): Flood Control Ability Assessment in the Middle of Xijiang River

摘要: 为了抵御洪水的堤防工程被不断加高，改变了原天然河道的洪水槽蓄关系，促使洪峰流量序列发生变异，使得洪水序列失去了一致性，导致防洪堤的防洪能力一再受到挑战和质疑。本文在梧州站基于MISOHRM模型的非一致性洪水频率计算结果的基础上，对其堤防防洪能力进行了分析。结果显示：梧州站堤防的防洪能力有显著降低的趋势，在安全超高2.0~2.5 m的条件下，其右堤可以抵御的洪水标准从过去条件下的77.13~145.90年一遇，降低到现状条件下的6.20~10.93年一遇和未来条件下的3.33~4.95年一遇。左堤可以抵御的洪水标准从过去条件下的24.53~39.72年一遇，降低到现状条件下的3.13~4.25年一遇和未来条件下的1.85~2.32年一遇。

Abstract: The levees were built to control the flood, and with the higher and higher flood control standard, the flood series become inconsistent and the hydrological alteration happens in the flood peak series, the flood control ability was under challenge and suspicion, while the research of flood control ability in the changing environment was not too much. With the calculation results of inconsistent flood frequency method based on the MISOHRM model of Wuzhou station, the flood control ability was analyzed. The results show that: the decrease tendency of flood control ability is obviously at Wuzhou station, under the condition of safe super elevation from 2.0mto2.5m, the flood control ability of right levee decreased from 77.13 -145.90 yd (past condition) to 6.20 -10.93 yd (present condition) and 3.33 -4.95 yd (future condition), the left levee decreased from 24.53 -39.72 yd (past condition) to 3.13 -4.25 yd (present condition) and 1.85 -2.32 yd (future condition).