讨赖河流域月降水时间序列中的混沌现象
Chaos Phenomenon of the Monthly Rainfallin the Taolai River Basin
摘要: 降水是我国西北干旱内陆河流域出山径流的重要补给来源，很大程度上影响着流域水资源的形成转化、开发利用以及旱涝灾害等过程。本文以讨赖河流域为研究区，基于流域上、中、下游3个典型站点的月降水序列资料，采用混沌理论分析方法，以饱和关联维数和Kolmogorov熵为控制参量，计算并探讨该区月降水序列中的混沌特性。计算结果表明，讨赖河流域降水过程在月时间尺度上具有混沌特征，3个典型站的1/Kolmogorov值得出的流域降水的可预报长度为10个月左右。本研究有助于深入理解干旱内陆河流域复杂降水过程变化规律，对降水–径流过程的研究具有序列特征方面的指导意义。
Abstract: As one of the important sources, rainfall in upper reaches of inland rivers in arid regions of northwestern Chinaplays key roles in not only the surface runoff generation, water transformation and utilization, but also regional drought and flooding to some certain extent. For a better understanding of characteristics of the rainfall, theTaolaiRiver basinis selected as the study area. The method of Chaos is used to determine the two key parameters of the Saturation Correlation Dimension and Kolmogorov Entropy based on the statistics of the observed monthly rainfall series from three representatively hydro-meteorological stations in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the river, respectively. Determination of the two key parameters resulted in relatively chaotic features for the time series of the monthly rainfall across theTaolaiRiver basin. Furthermore, reciprocal of the Kolmogorov entropy described a possible temporal forecasting scale of 10 months in this region. This study can help to understand the complex rainfall regime and analyze precipitation-runoff processes in arid regions.
文章引用：李文艳, 杨林山, 杨文瑾. 讨赖河流域月降水时间序列中的混沌现象[J]. 水资源研究, 2012, 1(3): 137-141. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2012.13019

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