中国东部冬季气温与海平面气压异常的关系

Analyses of the Winter Air Temperature in Eastern China and the Sea-Level Pressure Anomaly

摘要: 采用合成分析、相关分析、EOF方法，分析了中国东部气温与海平面气压异常变化的关系。结果表明：1) 中国东部冬季气温变化的一致性较高；2) 暖冬年和冷冬年海平面气压场合成分析的差异主要在三个区域：中高纬欧亚大陆负(正)距平、青藏高原正(负)距平和中纬度太平洋正(负)距平，对应冬季气温异常偏高(低)；3) 相关分析与合成分析的结果一致，从前一年12月~当年2月高相关区主要分布在东半球的三个区域：西伯利亚负相关区，青藏高原和中纬度太平洋正相关区，相关系数达0.3以上，从12月~2月高相关区扩大，相关值增大。与其它区域相关不够稳定且持续时间短，相关系数小；4) 使用相关中心点的SLP序列构造了冬季风强度指数。在年际变化和年代际变化方面，冬季风与气温都表现出相当好的相关性；除过云南的局部地方，中国东部其余所有区域的冬季气温与冬季风指数呈显著的负相关，冬季风强(弱)，则气温降低(升高)。

Abstract: Using composite、correlation analysis and EOF method, the author analyzed the relationship between the winter air temperature changes anomaly in eastern China and sea-level pressure anomalies (SLP). The main results are as follows: 1) The east China winter temperature change uniformity is high; 2) Warm winter and cold winter sea level field of pressure synthesis analysis difference mainly in three regions: High latitude Eurasia negative (positive) anomalous, Qinghai-Tibet Plain (negative) anomalous and middle latitude Pacific Ocean (negative) anomalous, the corresponding winter temperature is exceptionally high (lowly); 3) Correlation analysis is consistent with the synthesis analysis result, formerly a year in December ~ same year February high correlation area mainly distributed in the eastern hemisphere three regions: The Siberia inverse correlation area, the Qinghai-Tibet Plain and the middle latitude Pacific Ocean are being connected the area, the correlation coefficient reaches above 0.3, Expands from December to the February high related area, the correlative value increases. Insufficiently is stable also the duration with other region correlation is short, the correlation coefficient is small; 4) Use correlation central point SLP sequence structure winter monsoon intensity index. In the year border change and the age border change aspect, the winter monsoon and the temperature all display the quite good relevance; Has eliminated Yunnan's partial place, the east China other all region winter temperature and the winter monsoon index assumes the remarkable inverse correlation, the winter monsoon strong (weak), then the temperature reduces (ascension).