全球变暖对我国西北地区小麦生产的影响

The Impact of Global Warming on Wheat Yields in Northwest China

摘要: 本文利用西北五省(区)1978~2007年小麦生产的投入产出数据和气候数据，研究了全球变暖对该地区小麦生产的影响。结果表明，年平均气温上升1%，小麦产量下降0.023%，而年降水量和年日照时数的变化对小麦生产没有显著影响。为了应对全球变暖对西北干旱地区粮食生产的负面影响，有必要从耕作实践、良种培育、土地利用、防灾减灾等方面探索有效的适应性措施。

Abstract:  

Using the input-output data of wheat production and climate data in five provinces of northwest Chinaduring 1978-2007, this paper studies the impact of global warming on the wheat yields in northwestChina. It concludes that the annual average temperature rises one percent, the wheat yields will reduce by 0.023%, while there is no significant impact of annual precipitation amount and annual sun-shining hours on wheat yields. In order to counter the impact of global warming on wheat production in northwestChina, it is necessary to explore the adaptive measures in farming practice, seed cultivation, use of arable land, and the prevention and mitigation of agricultural disaster.