摘要: 针对淮河流域水量水质联合调度风险分析问题中的多方案的选择问题，综合考虑两个主要污染物指标高锰酸盐指数指标和氨氮指数指标，分别建立水量水质联合调度BP神经网络高锰酸盐指数模拟模型和氨氮模拟模型，求得上诉两个指标的超标风险率；然后采用多目标模糊决策方法，分别以上述两个指标作为模糊决策的决策目标，以模拟的6个调度方案为模糊决策的决策方案，得到了由6个方案，2个目标组成的目标特征值矩阵，在此基础上建立模糊决策模型，得到了综合考虑高锰酸盐指数指标和氨氮指数指标两个水质指标的决策方案结果，计算得到了方案集相对优等决策的相对隶属度矩阵。结果表明，各决策方案的优劣次序为(3，2，4，5，1，6)，认为调度方案3风险率最小，为最优方案。
Abstract:
In plans selection of risk analysis of water quantity and quality joint operation in Huaihe River Basin, the BP neutral network simulation models of water quantity and quality joint operation of CODMn and NH3-N, the two main pollutants in Huaihe River Basin, are established to make out the risk rates of both of the two water indexes above. By the method of multi objective fuzzy decision making, The eigenvalues matrix is worked out, which consists of 6 simulated plans as the scheme, and those 2 indexes as the objects, Then the fuzzy decision making model is established, which is employed to choose the best plan of the six plans. From the above, the relative membership matrix of the six plans series is received. Result shows that the order of priority of the six scheme are (3, 2, 4, 5, 1, 6), the third operational plan whose risk rate is the smallest among six plans, and then is considered as the optimal plan.