我国石油炼制行业节能减排潜力仿真模型设计

Design for Potential Simulation Model of Energy-Saving and Emission-Reducing in China’s Petrochemical Industry

摘要: 随着低碳经济时代的到来，我国也逐步实行以低能耗、低污染为基点的可持续发展模式，“十二五”规划中明确提出节能减排战略目标。引用国际节能减排潜力研究手段，将SD模型与LEAP模型结合，能够准确预估我国石油炼制工业节能减排的潜力。首先，运用SD模型根据各行业耗能量估算出当前和未来若干年原油产量、炼制产品的需求量；其次，将上述数据及其他相应指标输入LEAP模型，得出基准情景和理想情景；然后，将两种情景与参考情景(现有状况总结得出)做出比较分析，找到问题和潜力所在；最后，提出相关可行性建议。

Abstract: With the era of low-carbon economy, Chinais gradually implementing the sustainable development which is based on low energy consumption and low pollution, and has put forward the strategic target of energy conservation and emission reduction explicitly in “12th Five Year Plan”. Referencing the international research methods in the potential of energy-saving emission reduction, which combined SD model with LEAP model, the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country’s petroleum refining industry can be forecasted accurately. Firstly, based on SD model and the amount of energy consumption in industries, the requirements of oil production and refined products in current and future several years can be estimated. Secondly, putting the data and relevant indicators into LEAP model can get the baseline scenario and ideal scenario. Then, making a comparative analysis between the two scenarios and the reference scenario which come from the conclusions about existing conditions can find problems and potential. Finally, some relevant feasible suggestions are put forward.