我国冬季冷空气活动特征及前期影响因子分析

Study on the Characteristics and Its Previous Affecting Factors of Winter Cold Air Activities in China

摘要: 本文利用1951~2010年冬季(12~2月)冷空气活动资料，全国160站冬季气温资料，北半球海平面气压场和500 hPa高度场及相关环流特征指数资料，分析了冷空气活动特征及其与我国气温的关系，并通过合成对比和差值计算及相关分析等方法，找出了对冬季冷空气活动具有显著指示意义的大气环流因子，为冷空气活动趋势预测提供依据。

Abstract: Based on the observations of cold-air mass activity, air temperature records over nationwide of 160 stations, sea Surface pressure fields of north hemisphere, and the height fields at 500 hPa, as well as the related circulation indexes of the winter periods during 1951 to 2010, using the methods, such as composite analysis, differential analysis and correlation analysis, the possible links between cold-air activities and the other above data series are studied. The results show that the winter air temperatures in our country are closely related to the cold air activities. In addition, some atmospheric circulation indexes are found out, which are good indicators for winter cold air activities, and can be used as tools for forecasting winter cold air activities.