股市财富效应对我国城镇居民消费水平的影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Stock Market Wealth Effect of the Influence of the Urban Residents Consumption Level in China

摘要: 本文通过对相关理论知识的梳理和分析，建立了一个基于莫迪利亚尼的生命周期理论的将股市波动与居民消费之间相关联的实证模型。实证数据选用了我国城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出、消费者价格指数和上证指数的历史数据，实证结果表明我国股票市场存在正的财富效应，但是较微弱。本文对可能的原因进行了简单分析，并给出三点提高我国股市财富效应的建议。

Abstract: This article established an empirical model, based on the life cycle theory of Modigliani, which combined the stock market volatility and the effect of consumption through the analysis of related theory knowledge. The part of empirical chose the historical data of urban per capita disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure in our country, the consumer price index, and the historical data of Shanghai stock index. The empirical result shows that the wealth effect of the stock market is positive but relatively weak. This article makes a simple analysis of the reason of the weak but positive wealth effect, and gives three suggestions for the improvement of China’s stock market wealth effect.