基于LMDI分解的中美印俄德五国NDC评估

The NDC Evaluation of China, the USA, India, Russia and Germany Based on LMDI Method

摘要: 气候变化和能源治理是当今人类社会面临的共同挑战，而碳排放是其中的热点问题。基于碳排放Kaya恒等式，运用LMDI分解技术对中国、美国、印度、俄罗斯和德国2000~2013年的碳排放增量进行因素分解。并根据各国提交的NDC，预测四个效应在2014~2030年对碳排放的贡献。结果表明：经济规模效应对各国碳排放均为主要促进因素，能源强度效应为主要抑制因素，人口规模效应和能源结构效应对各国碳排放的影响因国而异。只有德国的碳排放在各种因素作用下呈下降趋势，其余各国都呈上升趋势。因此，实现全球气候变化目标，需要各国政府更为有效的减排努力。

Abstract: Climate change and energy governance are the common challenges facing human society today, and carbon emissions are a key concern. This paper constructs a carbon emission identity based on population, economy, energy intensity and energy structure and employs LMDI decomposition technology to decompose carbon emissions in China, the United States, India, Russia and Germany from 2000 to 2013. According to the NDC submitted by each country, the paper predicts the contribution of the four effects to total carbon emissions during 2014-2030. The results show that the economic scale is the main factor to increase national carbon emissions and energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor, while the effects of population and energy structure effect on carbon emissions vary from country to country. Only Germany’s carbon emissions are declining in the study period, and all the rest are on the rise. Our study indicates the importance of more effective efforts of global governments in fighting against global warming.