我国未来时期径流对气候变化的响应
Response of Runoff over the Future Period to Climate Change in China
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.15059, PDF, HTML,  被引量 下载: 3,322  浏览: 12,767  国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 王高旭*, 魏俊彪, 赵宏臻, 侯保灯:南京水利科学研究院,水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京
关键词: 径流气候变化回归模型预测 Runoff; Climate Change; Regression Model; Forecast
摘要:

为揭示未来气候变化对我国水资源的影响,文章采用1961~2000年全国10个水资源一级区的天然径流、降水和气温资料,建立了各水资源分区径流与降水、气温的统计回归模型,并结合公开发布的WCRP耦合模式比较计划–阶段3的降水和气温数据计算了A1B、A2和B1三种气候情景下2011~2050年的径流量,分析了径流量对气候要素的响应。结果表明:各水资源分区降水、气温与径流的相关性显著,回归分析效果很好;A1B、A2和B1情景模式下,海河区、黄河区、辽河区、松花江区、西北诸河区和西南诸河区未来时期(2011~2050年)平均径流量比基准期(1961~2000年)均有所增加;珠江区在三种模式下未来时期多年平均径流深比基准期减少,平均减少幅度3.89%;东南诸河区和长江区在A1B、B1情景模式下径流深增加,A2情景模式下减少;淮河区在A2情景模式下径流深减少,A1B、B1情景模式下增加。 For revealing the impacts of future climate change on water resources in China, this article used the natural runoff, precipitation and temperature of National Water Resources Zone in 1961-2000, established the regression model about the natural runoff, precipitation, and temperature; and calculated the runoff in 2011-2050 in different modes which combinated with the precipitation and temperature data of WCRP open publishing coupled mode comparison plans-stage 3 data, analysised the climate change response on runoff. Results indicates that: the precipitation, temperature and runoff in all water resources zones are correlated significantly, the effects of regression analysis are very good; in A1B, and A2 and B1 3 modes, the future pe-riod (2011-2050) average runoffs in Haihe Zone, Yellow River Zone, Liaohe Zone, Songhuajiang Zone, Southwest Rivers Zone and Northwest Rivers Zone are larger than the baseline period (1961-2000). In the three modes, Pearl River Zone’s future period runoff is less than baseline period by 3.89%; Routheast Rivers Zone and Changjiang River Zone’s runoff are increase in A1B and B1 modes, but reduce in A2 mode; Huaihe Zone’s runoff is reduce in A2 mode, but increase in A1B and B1 modes.

 

文章引用:王高旭, 魏俊彪, 赵宏臻, 侯保灯. 我国未来时期径流对气候变化的响应[J]. 水资源研究, 2012, 1(5): 380-387. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2012.15059

参考文献

[1] 秦大河. 我国气候与环境变化及其影响与对策[J]. 理论动态, 2006, 6: 28-38. QIN Dahe. Influence and countermeasures for climate and environment change of China. Theoretical Trends, 2006, 6: 28-38. (in Chinese)
[2] 张建云, 王国庆, 杨扬, 等. 气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(5): 290-295. ZHANG Jianyun, WANG Guoqing, YANG Yang, et al. The possible impacts of climate change on water security in China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2008, 4(5): 290-295. (in Chinese)
[3] 王国庆. 气候变化对黄河中游水文水资源影响的关键问题研究[D]. 南京: 河海大学, 2006. WANG Guoqing. Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Nanjing: Hohai University, 2006. (in Chinese)
[4] 刘春蓁. 气候变化对我国水文水资源的可能影响[J]. 水科学进展, 1997, 8(3): 220-225. LIU Chunzhen. Potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in China. Advances in Water Science, 1997, 8(3): 220-225. (in Chinese)
[5] 王国庆, 王云璋, 尚长昆. 气候变化对黄河水资源的影响[J]. 人民黄河, 2000, 22(9): 40-46. WANG Guoqing, WANG Yunzhang and SHANG Changkun. Impact of climate changes on water resources in the Yellow River. Yellow River, 2000, 22(9): 40-46. (in Chinese)
[6] 郭生练, 杨井, 彭辉, 等. 气候异常变化对长江中下游水文水资源的影响评价, 21世纪中国水文科学研究的新问题新技术和新方法[C]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2001: 175-180. GUO Shenglian, YANG jing, PENG Hui, et al. The impact of climate change and climate variation on hydrology and water resources in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin. Beijing: Science Press, 2001: 175-180. (in Chinese)
[7] 范广洲, 吕世华, 程国栋. 气候变化对滦河流域水资源影响的水文模式模拟[J]. 高原气象, 2001, 20(3): 202-310. FAN Guangzhou, LV Shihua and CHENG Guodong. Simulation of influence of climate change on water resource over Luanhe River Valley using a hydrological model. Plateau Meteorology, 2001, 20(3): 202-310. (in Chinese)
[8] 游松财, KIYOSHI Takahashi, YUZURU Matsuoka. 全球气候变化对中国未来地表径流的影响[J]. 第四纪研究, 2002, 22(2): 148-157. YOU Songcai, KIYOSHI Takahashi and YUZURU Matsuoka. Climate change impact on surface runoff in China. Quaternary Sciences, 2002, 22(2): 148-157. (in Chinese)
[9] 张建云, 章四龙. 水文科学面临的气候变化问题, 中国水文科学与技术研究进展[M]. 南京: 河海大学出版社, 2004: 1-13. ZHANG Jianyun, ZHANG Silong. Climate change issues of hy-drology, advances of hydrological sciences and technology. Nanjing: Hohai University Press, 2004: 1-13. (in Chinese)
[10] IPCC. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cam-bridge University Press, 2001.
[11] IPCC. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, sum- mary for policymakers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[12] GAO, Xuejie, SHI, Ying, SONG, Ruiyan, et al. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2008, 100: 73-86.
[13] SHI, Y., GAO, X. J., WANG, Y. G., et al. Simulation and projection of monsoon rainfall and rain patterns over Eastern China under global warming by RegCM3. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2009, 2(5): 308-313.
[14] 赵芳芳, 徐宗学. 统计降尺度方法和Delta方法建立黄河源区气候情景的比较分析[J]. 气象学报, 2007, 65(4): 654-662. ZHAO Fangfang, XU Zongxue. Comparative analysis on down- scaled climate scenarios for headwater catchment of yellow river using SDS and Delta methods. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2007, 65(4): 654-662. (in Chinese)
[15] 张世法, 顾颖, 林锦. 气候模式应用中的不确定性分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(4): 504-511. ZHANG Shifa, GU Ying and LIN Jin. Uncertainty analysis in the application of climate models. Advances in Water Sciences, 2010, 21(4): 504-511. (in Chinese)