青海省互助县农作物物候对气候变化的响应

Response of Crops to Climate Change across Huzhu County of Qinghai Province

摘要: 以青海省东部农业区互助县为例，分析了春小麦、油菜生育期物候变化规律及其对气温、降水变化的响应。结果表明：1) 青海互助县近50年来平均气温呈明显上升趋势，与青藏高原和全球气候变暖趋势一致。年降水量很不稳定。每年以6~8月雨水较多，降水量约占全年降水量的54%；2) 气候变化对青海互助县农作物(小麦、油菜)物候现象生育期的影响是不同的。各发育阶段对气候变化的响应差异明显，气候变化使小麦、油菜的播种期略有提前1 d，营养生长期基本不变，生殖生长期明显提前2~4 d。在全球气候变暖的前提下，整个生长季呈现出缩短趋势；3) 6~8月气温是影响小麦、油菜的整个生育期提前的主要气候因子，小麦、油菜物候期与6~8月气温呈负相关，相关系数为–0.49和–0.23，与月降水量呈正相关，相关系数为0.29和0.28；4) 高原作物自然物候现象存在着明显的地域性。

Abstract: Phenological change of spring wheat and rape is studied and its response to temperature and precipitation is analyzed in this paper taking HuzhuCounty, one of eastern agriculture areas ofQinghaiProvince, as example. The results show that: 1) The average temperature has a clear upward tendency in the past fifty years in accordance with the Tibetan Plateau and global warming. The annual precipitation, mostly occurring during June to August each year and amounting to 54% of the total, is rarely steady; 2) Influence of climate change on crops are different during each developing stage: seeding time is 1 d ahead of schedule, vegetative growth is less affected while the ripening stage obviously is brought forward around 2 - 4 d, the whole growth period presents a shortening trend under global warming background; 3) Temperature during June to August is the chief climate factor on moving forward the whole growing season, phenological period of wheat and rape has negative correlation with temperature during June to August but a positive one with monthly total precipitation, correlation coefficients are –0.49, –0.23 and 0.29, 0.28, respectively; 4) Phenology of crops growing in plateau areas is affected by regional conditions.