摘要: 本文将“压力–状态–响应”(PSR)框架模型引入到水资源短缺风险评价指标体系中，采用主成分分析方法对评价指标进行赋权，对北京市1986~2011年年度水资源短缺风险水平进行了评价。结果表明，近年来北京综合风险值一直处于较高水平，1999年~2008年尤为严重，从2008年起得到一定的缓和。水资源利用率与污水处理能力这两项指标对水资源风险的产生有较大的影响。随着人口增长，未来北京仍然面临较高水资源短缺的风险。控制人口过度增长，合理使用各种水源，加快产业结构优化升级是缓解水资源短缺风险的有效途径。
Abstract:
Water resources shortage risk index system based on the “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) framework is established and applied to assess water resources shortage risk level during 1986-2011 in Beijing city with the assistance of principal component analysis method. The research shows that Beijing has experienced a ten-year low flow period with high integrated value of risk since 1999; however, such situation became alleviative since 2008. Utilization ratio of water resources and urban sewage treatment capacity are considered to be two of 14 indicators which have greater impact on water shortage risk. Even though the water resources risk in Beijing reduced a little in these recent years, Beijing still faces risks of water shortages in the future as the population increased. Curb of population growth, rational use of various kinds of water and upgrade of industrial structure are effective ways to alleviate water shortage risk.