南方电网在地震灾害下的弹性评估与改进

Resilience Assessment and Enhancement of China Southern Power Grid under Seismic Hazards

摘要: 电网的安全稳定运行对于经济繁荣，国家安全和公共卫生安全至关重要。然而在地震多发地区，高烈度地震的发生可能同时造成电网中的大量设施元件损坏，并导致电网内部和依赖电力供应的基础设施系统发生级联故障。因此，电网的弹性对于确保电力快速恢复和保障受灾人民电力需求至关重要。本文介绍了一种概率性的建模方法以对当前电网的弹性进行量化评估。这种方法包括地震情形生成模型，元件脆弱性模型，电网功能变化模型和元件恢复模型。综合这四个模型可以量化电网的弹性。本文应用上述方法对中国南方电网的弹性进行了评估，并提出了弹性策略以改进电网弹性。

Abstract: Safe and stable operation of electric power grids is critical to economic prosperity, national security, public health and safety. However, in earthquake-prone areas, a severe earthquake may si-multaneously cause extensive component failures in a power grid and lead to cascading failures within it and across other power-dependent utility systems. Hence, the seismic resilience of power systems is crucial to ensure their rapid recovery and support the needs of the population in disaster areas. This paper introduces a probabilistic modeling approach for quantifying the seismic re-silience of contemporary electric power grids. This approach includes an earthquake scenario generation model, component fragility models, a power grid performance model, and a system restoration model. These coupled four models enable quantifying seismic resilience. This paper applies the proposed approach to the seismic resilience assessment of the China Southern Power Grid, and several resilience strategies have been introduced to display how seismic resilience can be improved.