标题:
随机模拟在船舶溢油污染风险预测中的应用研究The Application of Random Simulation in Predicting the Risk of Oil Spill in Ships
作者:
朱宇新, 王莹, 徐鑫, 李明昌
关键字:
溢油, 随机模拟, 风险预测, OILMAPOil Spill, Stochastic Simulation, Risk Prediction, OILMAP
期刊名称:
《Advances in Environmental Protection》, Vol.8 No.2B, 2018-03-13
摘要:
本研究采用专业化的水动力预测模型MIKE21模型和溢油模型OILMAP模型相结合，以水动力预测模型为溢油模型提供准确的潮流场，在此基础上，应用油粒子跟踪方法和随机模拟的方法对规划港区的溢油污染风险进行预测和评估，研究结果表明，溢油事故发生后，潮流和风的共同作用会直接影响油膜的扫海范围及漂移轨迹；在规划港区口门处发生海损性事故后，受溢油影响概率大于70%的海域面积约为191.5 km2，其他水域受溢油的影响概率较小；本研究可以为港区应急能力规划提供必要的技术支撑。
This study combines the hydrodynamic prediction model MIKE21 and the oil spill model OILMAP. Using the hydrodynamic prediction model to provide the accurate tidal current field for oil spill model, we apply oil particle tracing method and stochastic simulation method to predict and evaluate the risk of oil spill in the planned port area. The numerical simulation results show that the current and the wind will directly affect the range and trajectory of the oil film. Once the oil spill accident happens, the area with probability greater than 70% is about 191.5 km2, which is mainly affected by 5 km within two sides of port. Through risk prediction and assessment, we can provide necessary support for the regional emergency forces.