标题:
变化环境下的佛山降雨趋势特征及影响因素分析Characteristics and Influences of Precipitation Tendency in Foshan under Environmental Variations
作者:
施宁宁, 刘嘉仪, 邝燕良, 周月英, 廖强, 刘祖发
关键字:
佛山, 变化环境, 降雨特征, 影响, 趋势分析Foshan; Environmental Variation; Precipitation Characteristics; Influences; Tendency Analysis
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.3 No.1, 2014-01-21
摘要:
本文通过对佛山市5个区的主要雨量站在1956~2010年的降雨量数据，用泰森多边形法进行统计整理得出佛山市月降雨量。用一元线性回归法线性拟合月、季的降雨量变化特征，再通过滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall检验法分析佛山年降雨量在过去50多年间的变化趋势，并进行显著性及突变检验，得出佛山市降雨情况在1956~2010年呈上升趋势，在1997年发生降雨量上升的突变。结合气候环境的变化，认为佛山市年降雨量基本随年平均温度的升高而升高，与广东省温度变化正相关。此外，佛山市夏季降雨量的主要影响因素为人类活动造成的城市热岛效应，极端降雨量的年际变化尚未发现规律。Precipitation data of main precipitation stations of Foshan’s 5 zones during 1956-2010 are analyzed by Thiessen Polygons to explore the average monthly precipitation of Foshan. The method of linear regression is used to detect the variation characteristics of monthly and quarterly precipitation. The method of moving average and Mann-Kendall are used to explore the variation tendency, significance and mutation detection of Foshan’s precipitation during those 50 years. Combined with the variation of climatic environment, these conclusions are drawn: the precipitation of Foshan is getting higher during 1956-2010, and a mutation of rising was detected in 1997; Foshan’s annual average precipitation is positively correlated with the annual average temperature of Guangdong; the precipitation of summer is mainly controlled by urban heat island caused by human activities. No regular pattern is detected in annual variation of extreme precipitation.