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T. L. McDaniel, L. J. Axelrod, N. S. Cavanagh, et al. Perception of ecological risk to water environments. Insurance: Mathe- matics and Economics, 1998, 22(2): 190-191.

• 作者: 宋科, 赵晟, 桂峰, 蔡惠文, 吴常文

期刊名称: 《Advances in Environmental Protection》, Vol.1 No.2, 2011-12-30

摘要: 生态风险的定量评价与综合研究是目前国际上一个热点问题。本文在大尺度生态系统上，通过生态系统服务价值的定量化与风险分析的数学模型相结合，进行了基于生态系统服务能值价值的风险分析研究，提供了一种生态系统风险分析的定量化研究方法。通过建立EVR生态风险分析模型和基于信息扩散理论的生态风险分析模型，以及对生态系统服务的定量化指标：生态系统服务的能值价值的阐述，计算了舟山市不同年份(1985~2007)的生态系统服务能值价值，并分别用EVR模型和信息扩散模型进行了实证分析。首先用EVR模型计算了在不同置信水平下未来一年生态系统服务能值价值损失的上限，即EVR值，如置信水平为95%时，能值价值的损失上限是5.233E+21sej；其次用信息扩散模型计算了生态系统服务能值价值的风险估计值。如能值价值为4.00E+21sej时，风险估计值为1.0641。 Ecological risk analysis is a new marginal subject that studies issues on risk theory, modern eco- logy and environmental science, etc. Currently, quantitative assessing and integrative study of ecological risk is a significant issue in the world. At the macrocosm scale we have a practice study on risk analysis based on the value of ecosystem services by integrating the quantification of the value of ecosystem services with the model of risk analysis. We establish an ecological risk analysis models: the model of ecological value at risk (EVR) and the information diffusion model. They provide a quantitative method for the ecological risk ana- lysis. The Zhoushan city was selected as an example for application of our study. According to the historical data of Zhoushan city (1985 - 2007), the emergy value of the ecosystem services was calculated and the value of ecological risk was estimated by using the EVR and information diffusion model. First, we calculate the value of EVR. Such as the confidence level is 95%, the value of EVR of the emergy value is 5.233E+21. Secondly, we evaluate the risk index of Zhoushan’s ecosystems. Finally, we evaluate the estimated value of ecosystem ser- vices at risk. When the given emergy value is 4.00E+21 sej, the estimated value is 1.0641, it means that the pro- bability of the emergy value at risk in next year bigger than 4.00E+21 sej is 1.0641.