标题:
年径流模拟方法比较研究Comparison of Simulation Methods for Annual Streamflow
作者:
李帅, 熊立华
关键字:
年径流模拟, 两参数月水量平衡模型, 多元线性回归方法Annual Streamflow Simulation; Two-Parameter Monthly Water Balance Model; Multiple Linear Regression Method
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.2 No.2, 2013-04-29
摘要:
基于两参数月水量平衡(TPMWB)模型的基本结构框架，本文设计了两种年径流模拟方法(TPMWB-1和TPMWB-2)。TPMWB-1方法以实测月降水量和蒸发量作为输入，通过TPMWB模型首先得到模拟月径流量，然后逐月累加得到模拟年径流量；而TPMWB-2方法以实测年降水量和蒸发量作为TPMWB模型输入，直接得到模拟年径流量。作为比较，多元线性回归(MLR)方法也被用于年径流模拟。在东江、赣江和汉江流域的52个子流域上对3种方法进行了年径流模拟。研究发现，3种方法均取得了令人满意的模拟效果。TPMWB-2方法在年径流模拟中的成功应用表明，TPMWB模型结构也适合直接用于年时间尺度的径流模拟，可在更多湿润或半湿润地区年径流模拟中推广应用。
Based on the structure of two-parameter monthly water balance (TPMWB) model, two annual streamflow simulation methods, which were called as TPMWB-1 and TPMWB-2 respectively, were designed in this paper. For the TPMWB-1, observed monthly precipitation and potential evaportranspiration were taken as the inputs, monthly runoff was firstly simulated by using the TPMWB model, and the annual streamflow was subsequently calculated by the sum of the corresponding simulated monthly runoff. For the TPMWB-2, observed annual precipitation and potential evaportranspiration were taken as the inputs, and annual streamflow was then directly simulated. To provide a comparison with the simulation results of these two methods, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method was also used to estimate the annual streamflow. Finally, 52 sub-catchments in Dongjiang, Ganjiang and Hanjiang River Basins were chosen for comparison analysis of the runoff simulation results of 3 methods. The results show that all methods obtain good simulation results. From the successful application of TPMWB-2 methods it is concluded that the structure of TPMWB model is suitable and recommended to directly simulate the annual runoff in more humid and semi-humid regions.