标题:
基于统计降尺度模型预测鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水变化趋势Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics for the Poyang Lake Basin Based on Statistical Downscaling Model
作者:
洪兴骏, 郭生练, 郭家力, 侯雨坤, 王乐
关键字:
气候变化, CMIP5, 统计降尺度, 极值降水, 预测分析, 鄱阳湖流域Climate Change, CMIP5, Statistical Downscaling, Extreme Precipitation, Prediction Analysis, Poyang Lake Basin
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.3 No.6, 2014-12-03
摘要:
本文以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象，研究变化环境下极端气候事件的时空分布及演变规律。利用流域内13个代表站点1961~2005年的逐日降水量资料，选用BCC-CSM1.1全球气候模式和三种(高、中、低)温室气体典型浓度路径排放情景，并与SDSM统计降尺度模型耦合，分析预测未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性指标的变化趋势。得出以下主要结论：进行偏差校正后的SDSM统计降尺度模型可应用于未来极值降水指标的计算；鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水量级、强度和持续性主要呈增加趋势；流域有降水集中化的趋势，这对于流域防洪较为不利，且未来可能面临较大的“旱涝急转”的风险。As climate change will certainly result in strong response from extreme climatic events, investi-gating the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution laws of extreme climatic events is of great importance. Based on the daily precipitation from 1961 to 2005 from thirteen meteorological sta-tions within the Poyang Lake basin, daily precipitation for future period of 2010-2099 is simulated using the SDSM statistical downscaling model. Coupling a BCC-CSM1.1 GCM with three representa-tive concentration pathways (RCPs), the changing characteristics of magnitude, intensity and per-sistence of extreme precipitation are studied by means of several extreme precipitation indices. A bias correction procedure should be applied to the SDSM simulated historical precipitation before it can be used to simulate future precipitation. The extreme precipitation magnitude and intensity, as well as the persistence all show significantly increasing trends. Upgrading flood mitigation dif-ficulties due to a concentration tendency of precipitation, as well as the increasing potential of abrupt alternation between flood and drought will threaten the water resources security of the Poyang Lake basin.