基于排队论的机场出租车司机决策模型——以杭州市为例

Airport Taxi Driver’s Decision Model Based on Queuing Theory—Taking Hangzhou for Instance

摘要: 在生活中，将乘客送到机场的出租车司机往往面对这样一个困惑：是前往到达区排队等待载客还是直接返回市区？这个选择的背后是出租车司机对更高收益的期望。有经验的出租车司机可以根据时间做出一个感性的判断，但一个理性的抉择明显更为重要。基于此，本文建立模型并分析影响出租车收益的各种因素，如该时段抵达乘客的数量、机场“蓄车池”中已有的出租车数量等，预估司机的收入，帮助司机进行决策。基于以上分析，本文不仅能提高乘客的收益，还能够优化乘客的出行和机场的调度，对于其他大型交通枢纽的司机、工作人员、乘客同样也有着借鉴意义。

Abstract: In life, taxi drivers who send passengers to the airport often face the puzzle: should they go to the arrival area and wait in line to pick up passengers or return to the city directly? Behind this choice is the expectation of taxi drivers for higher returns. Experienced taxi drivers can make a perceptual judgment based on time, but a rational choice is more important. Based on this, this article builds a model and analyzes various factors that affect the revenue of taxis, such as the number of passengers arriving at that time, the number of taxis already in the “car storage pool” of the airport, etc. to estimate the driver’s income and help the driver make decisions. Based on the above analysis, this article can not only increase passenger revenue, but also optimize passenger travel and airport scheduling. It also has reference significance for drivers, staff, and passengers in other large transportation hubs.