新冠疫情影响经济发展的系统动因与对策研究

Research on System Causes and Countermeasures of COVID-19 Affecting Economic Development

摘要: 新冠疫情的爆发和扩散对我国民生安全和经济造成的损失越来越大，新冠肺炎导致劳动力减少，增加医疗卫生支出，影响劳动资本、资本投资、进出口，改变财政支出结构，给社会经济运行带来了显著负面影响。但从长期来看，疫情的发生将促进实体经济与信息技术融合，带动数字经济进一步发展，催生新的商业模式，为经济复苏带来新的契机。本文基于经济学理论，运用系统动力学方法，研究了疫情与经济发展之间的因果关系，从疫情防控角度构建了经济增长动力学模型。

Abstract: Nowadays, the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 has caused greater and greater losses to our national livelihood security and economy. COVID-19 has led to a reduction in labor force, increased medical and health expenditures, affected labor capital, capital investment, import and export, changed the structure of fiscal expenditures, which had a significant negative impact to social economic operation. But in the long run, the outbreak will promote the integration of the real economy and information technology, drive the further development of the digital economy, create new business models, and bring new opportunities for economic recovery. Based on economic theory, this paper uses the system dynamics method to study the causal relationship between the epidemic and economic development, and builds a dynamic model of economic growth from the perspective of epidemic control.