中国新能源汽车发展趋势探究

Research on the Development Trend of New Energy Vehicles in China

摘要: 新能源汽车作为汽车产业转型升级的核心方向，凭借其低污染、低能耗的优势，获得了广泛关注。随着中国新能源汽车产业的迅速发展，构建数学模型以分析其发展规律具有重要的学术与实践意义。本文基于2011~2022年的文献与数据，构建了影响我国新能源汽车发展的指标体系，并结合主客观复合定权法对各指标进行赋权。然后，采用加权TOPSIS法构建了衡量新能源汽车发展的发展指数。此外，根据其非线性增长趋势，建立了指数形式的发展指数模型。模型的RMSE为0.007373，R-squared为0.9755，表明模型准确且合理。最后，利用该模型进行预测工作，揭示了新能源汽车产业的未来发展趋势。

Abstract: Because of their low emissions and low energy consumption, new energy vehicles (NEVs) have attracted a lot of attention and are now a major emphasis in the automotive industry’s transformation and upgrading. Developing mathematical models to examine the development patterns of China’s rapidly growing NEV industry has substantial academic and practical significance. This study evaluates the factors driving NEV development in China by creating an indicator system based on data and literature from 2011 to 2022. The indicators are given weights using a composite weighting method that combines subjective and objective assessments. The development index is then created using a weighted TOPSIS approach to gauge NEV advancement. Additionally, an index-based approach is suggested, taking into account the non-linear growth tendency. The model’s correctness and validity are demonstrated by the results, which show an RMSE of 0.007373 and an R-squared value of 0.9755. Lastly, the model’s forecasting application reveals future development tendencies in the NEV sector.