云南省近40年降水、气温变化趋势分析

Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Change Trend in Yunnan Province in Recent 40 Years

摘要: 本研究运用泰森多边形法、面积加权法、时间序列法以及Mann-Kendall趋势检验等统计学方法，对云南省1980年至2021年期间的降水量与气温变化趋势进行了深入的定量分析。研究发现，在过去42年间，云南省的降水量总体上呈现出显著的下降趋势，与此同时，气温则表现出上升趋势，其中平均降水量减少了约300 mm，平均气温上升了近1.0℃。该研究结果对于相关管理部门深入理解云南省气候变化的特征、进行未来气候趋势的预测以及制定相应的气候适应策略具有重要的参考价值。

Abstract: This study employs statistical methods including the Thiessen polygon method, area-weighted method, time series analysis, and Mann-Kendall trend test to conduct an in-depth quantitative analysis of precipitation and temperature variation trends in Yunnan Province from 1980 to 2021. The research findings indicate that over the past 42 years, Yunnan Province has exhibited a significant overall declining trend in precipitation alongside a rising trend in temperature, with average precipitation decreasing by approximately 300 mm and average temperature increasing by nearly 1.0˚C. These research outcomes hold important reference value for relevant administrative departments to gain a deeper understanding of the characteristics of climate change in Yunnan Province, predict future climate trends, and formulate corresponding climate adaptation strategies.