近20年青藏高原雷电灾害及其特征分析

Analysis on the Lightning Hazard and Its Characteristics on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in Recent 20 Years

摘要: 研究利用1998~2018年青海省和西藏自治区的雷电灾害调查统计资料，探究了青藏高原近20年的雷电变化特征及其造成的经济损失。研究结果表明：1998~2018年，青藏高原的雷电灾害共计1086起。1998~2008年，雷电灾害呈现波动上升的变化趋势，2008年达到最大值，2009~2018年雷电灾害的次数呈现下降后趋于平稳波动的动态变化。青藏高原雷电灾害的月动态分布呈现单峰模式，6~8月是青藏高原雷电灾害累计发生903起，占全部雷电灾害的83%，而11月到次年的2月未观测到雷电灾害的发生。雷电灾害造成的伤亡人数共计702人，其中2008年是雷电灾害造成伤亡人数最多的一年，高达105人，占全部伤亡人数的14.96%。青藏高原的雷电灾害每增加一次，伤亡人数增加0.59人。雷电灾害对青藏高原造成的损失中，电力系统所占比例最大为22.86%。青藏高原地区因雷电灾害造成的经济损失为2993.70万元，年平均经济损失为142.56万元/年。青藏高原电灾害每增加一次，经济损失增加2.23万元。通过分析青藏高原雷电灾害的年际动态和月动态变化特征及其造成的经济损失，旨在加深对青藏高原地区雷电发生规律的理解，为高海拔的区域的防灾减灾提供数据支撑。

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of lightning disasters in Qinghai Province and Tibet Autonomous Region from 1998 to 2018, this paper explores the characteristics of lightning changes and the economic losses caused by lightning over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 20 years. Results of the research indicated that there are totally 1086 lightning hazards on the Tibetan Plateau from 1998 to 2018. There are a fluctuant increasing trend from 1998~2008, and there was a peak in 2008. From 2009 to 2018, the number of lightning disasters decreased and then tended to fluctuate steadily. The month dynamic patterns of lightning hazard was shown as single peak, specifically, there are 903 lightning hazards from the June to August, and accounting for 83% of the total lightning hazard, while November and following year February did not exist lightning hazard. The number of casualties causing by lightning hazard was 702, and the most serious year was 2008, and the number of casualties can be high as 105, accounting for 14.96% of the total. The number of casualties on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increases by 0.59 for each increase in lightning disasters. Electric system has the largest proportion in lightning hazard, and accounted for 22.86%. The economic losses caused by lightning disasters on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were 29.937 million YUAN, with an average annual economic loss of 1.425 million YUAN per year. For each additional electric disaster on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, economic losses increase by 22,300 YUAN. By analyzing the characteristics of interannual and monthly dynamic changes of lightning disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the economic losses caused by them, this paper aims to deepen the understanding of the law of lightning occurrence in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and provide data support for disaster prevention and mitigation in high-altitude regions.