基于地理探测器模型的热带沿海地区城市扩张驱动力因素分析——以海口市为例

Analysis of Urban Expansion Drivers in Tropical Coastal Areas Based on the Geodetector Model—Taking Haikou City as an Example

摘要: 城市作为当地人口、经济等要素的集合体，其发展会受到自然条件、经济条件等多方面因素的约束。当前，城市化扩展的速度持续加快，这表明城市边界的延伸、空间的扩大以及居民人数的不断升高，为城市发展注入了更多的活力和可能性。但同时人地之间的矛盾也随之出现，并不断激化。本文以海口市作为研究对象，对其城市扩张驱动力的因素进行分析，了解热带沿海地区城市扩张的驱动力因素，不仅对丰富城市发展理论具有极大的帮助，而且海口市作为海南省的省会城市，其涵盖的问题更加全面且突出，尤其是对其主城区的相关研究，能为其他具有相似问题的地级市提供借鉴经验和理论指导。本文以较为翔实的数据，利用皮尔逊相关系数以及地理探测器模型分析城市建设用地的社会经济驱动力因素，研究得出的结论如下：海口城市发展尚处于以投资驱动扩张为特点的初级阶段，因而投资的规模与强度对城市扩张的影响较大。另外从交互探测结果可以看出城镇人口和人口增长率交互后对建设用地扩张解释力度增强，由此看出市场需求是建设用地扩张的内在因素，因而只有合理扩大人口规模、推进精细增长，才能提高城市空间利用效益。

Abstract: As a collection of local population and economic elements, its urban development will be constrained by natural conditions, economic conditions and other factors. At present, the speed of urbanization expansion continues to accelerate, which indicates that the extension of urban boundaries, the expansion of space and the increasing number of residents have injected more vitality and possibilities into urban development. But at the same time, the contradiction between people and land also appeared, and constantly intensified. This paper takes Haikou city as the research object, analyzes the driving forces of urban expansion, and understands the driving forces of urban expansion in tropical coastal areas, which is not only of great help to enrich the theory of urban development; moreover, as the capital city of Hainan Province, Haikou covers more comprehensive and prominent issues, especially related research on its main urban area, which can provide reference experience and theoretical guidance for other prefecture-level cities with similar problems. With more detailed data, using Pearson correlation coefficient and geographical detector model to analyze the social and economic driving factors, the conclusion is as follows: Haikou city development is still in the primary stage characterized by investment-driven expansion, so the scale and intensity of investment have a great influence on urban expansion. In addition, it can be seen from the interaction of the interactive detection results of the expansion of the urban population and the population growth rate, which can see that the market demand is the internal factor for the expansion of construction land. Therefore, only by reasonably expanding the population scale and promoting fine growth can the efficiency of urban space utilization be improved.