三孩生育意愿的影响因素研究

Study on the Factors Influencing the Willingness to Have a Third Child

摘要: 老龄化和少子化危机推动了三孩政策的出台，然而政府出于我国国情考虑的政策并没有取得预期的效果。本文结合2018年中国综合社会调查的数据，进行三孩生育意愿的影响因素分析，发现社会、家庭以及个人等因素都影响着国民的生育意愿。其中，性别、户口状况、家庭收入、房产数量等因素都对父母的生育意愿产生了显著影响。三孩政策的推出对我国生育率的提高是有正向作用的，但绝大部分家庭的理想子女数量都在1~2个，理想子女数量为3个或以上的家庭仅占9.4%。要提升父母生育意愿，推动三孩政策有效实施，就必须先解决影响父母生育意愿的经济问题和三孩的抚育问题。未来我国应当持续推进对生育政策的完善和改进，鼓励生育，实现从限制生育到三孩的历史性转变。

Abstract: The aging and child crisis have promoted the introduction of the three-child policy, but the government’s policies considering our national conditions have not achieved the expected results. Combined with the data of China’s comprehensive social survey in 2018, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the willingness to have a third child, and finds that social, family and personal factors all affect the people’s fertility willingness. Among them, factors such as gender, house-hold registration status, family income, and the number of properties have a significant impact on parents’ fertility willingness. The introduction of the three-child policy has a positive impact on the improvement of China’s fertility rate, but the vast majority of families have 1~2 ideal children, and only 9.4% of families had an ideal number of three or more children. In order to improve parents’ willingness to have children and promote the effective implementation of the three-child policy, it is necessary to solve the economic problems that affect parents’ willingness to have children and the upbringing of three children. In the future, China should continue to promote the improvement and improvement of fertility policies, encourage fertility, and realize the historic transformation from restricting fertility to three children.