新疆头屯河流域洪水特征分析

Analysis of Flood Characteristics in the Toutun River Basin of Xinjiang

摘要: 本文采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall趋势和突变检验法对流域59a实测洪峰序列资料进行统计分析，采用独立样本法和统一样本法对流域设计洪峰流量进行计算。结果表明头屯河流域洪峰流量序列数据总体呈现缓慢增加趋势，趋势变化不显著。年内洪水变化规律分析成果表明，头屯河流域洪水主汛期在7月至8月上旬，破坏性较大的洪水类型多为暴雨型洪水。论证后本文推荐的头屯河流域百年一遇、五十年一遇和三十年一遇的设计洪峰流量为268 m³/s、225.7 m³/s和195.3 m³/s。

Abstract: This article uses the moving average method, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test method to statistically analyze the measured flood peak sequence data of watershed 59a. The independent sample method and unified sample method are used to calculate the design flood peak flow of the watershed. The results indicate that the flood peak flow sequence data in the Toutun River Basin generally shows a slow increasing trend, and the trend change is not significant. The analysis results of flood change law in the year show that the main flood season of Toutun River basin is from July to early August, and the flood with greater destructiveness is mostly rainstorm flood. The recommended design flood peak flow rates for the Toutun River Basin after argumentation are 268 m³/s, 225.7 m³/s, and 195.3 m³/s.