近20年南水北调中线水源区经济发展时空差异分析

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Differences in Economic Development in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in the Past 20 Years

摘要: 本文以南水北调中线水源区的县域为研究对象，利用1999年~2019年的南水北调中线水源区县域经济数据，选用GDP和人均GDP指标来反映水源区经济发展水平，借助变异系数、莫兰指数、探索性分析等方法，在ArcGIS、GeoDa软件下，研究了近二十年各区县经济发展的时空差异，差异的主要原因是县域间的地理区位和自然条件，次要原因是地方政策和产业结构的不同，这些原因共同导致了水源区经济发展的时空差异，得出了水源区县域经济发展时空差异的结论。时间方面表现出县域经济整体的相对差距在逐渐缩小，空间方面表现出县域经济的空间集聚性不强，不能形成稳定的高值区。最后提出了南水北调中线水源区县域经济时空差异的发展建议，促进水源区县域经济的健康发展。

Abstract: This article takes the counties in the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project as the research object, utilizing county-level economic data from 1999 to 2019 in the water source area of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. It selects GDP and per capita GDP indicators to reflect the economic development level of the water source area. With the help of methods such as the coefficient of variation, Moran’s I, and exploratory analysis, under the ArcGIS and GeoDa software, it studies the temporal and spatial differences in the economic development of various counties in the past two decades. The main reasons for the differences are the geographical location and natural conditions among counties, while the secondary reasons are the differences in local policies and industrial structures. These reasons jointly lead to the temporal and spatial differences in the economic development of the water source area, and conclusions are drawn about the temporal and spatial differences in the economic development of the counties in the water source area. In terms of time, the relative gap in the overall county economy is gradually narrowing, and in terms of space, the spatial agglomeration of the county economy is not strong and cannot form a stable high-value area. Finally, development suggestions for the temporal and spatial differences in the county economy of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project are proposed to promote the healthy development of the county economy in the water source area.