Z-Score模型在我国建筑业上市公司财务预警中的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Z-Score Model in Financial Early Warning of Listed Companies in Construction Industry in China

摘要: 随着市场经济快速发展和城市化进程加速推进，对我国建筑企业的发展起到了积极促进作用。然而，受行业特性和外部环境影响，建筑企业面临较大的财务风险。因此，在提升企业经济效益的同时，有必要加强对企业财务风险管理工作的关注，以降低企业面临的风险水平。本文采用Z-Score财务风险预警模型，以A股上市的91家建筑业公司为研究对象，关注ST公司在其被特别处理前3年的财务表现，根据Z值的大小，分析公司处于破产区、灰色区或者安全区的数据，由数据可知在ST公司被特别处理前三年的会计年度中，公司的Z值均在2.675以下，都处于灰色区和破产区。并且这些公司Z值呈逐年减小的趋势，这说明ST公司在被特别处理前两年甚至前三年已经表现出财务状况恶化的迹象。对于非ST公司，在三个会计年度内处于破产区的公司占比一直很高，超过50%，虽然在t − 1年处于“破产区”的公司相对于前两年有下降，但是下降幅度不大，说明我国建筑业上市公司面临着较大的财务风险。本文的创新点是首次将Z-Score财务风险预警模型应用于我国建筑业上市公司，填补了该领域在财务预警方面的研究空白。此前，Z-Score模型主要应用于制造业等其他行业，其在建筑业中的应用尚未得到充分探索。通过将Z-Score模型应用于建筑业，为该行业提供了一个新的财务风险预警工具，有助于企业更准确地识别和应对潜在的财务风险。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the market economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the development of China’s construction enterprises has been positively promoted. However, due to the industry characteristics and external environmental influences, construction enterprises face significant financial risks. Therefore, while enhancing economic efficiency, it is necessary to strengthen the focus on financial risk management to reduce the risk levels enterprises face. This article employs the Z-Score financial risk early warning model, using 91 A-share listed construction companies as the research objects, and focuses on the financial performance of ST companies in the three years before they were specially treated. According to the size of the Z-value, the article analyzes the data of companies in the bankruptcy zone, gray zone, or safe zone. The data shows that the Z-values of ST companies in the three years before they were specially treated were all below 2.675, all in the gray zone and bankruptcy zone. Moreover, these companies’ Z-values showed a decreasing trend year by year, indicating that ST companies had already shown signs of deteriorating financial conditions two or even three years before being specially treated. For non-ST companies, the proportion of companies in the bankruptcy zone within three accounting years has remained high, exceeding 50%. Although the number of companies in the “bankruptcy zone” in t − 1 year decreased compared to the previous two years, the decrease was not significant, indicating that China’s listed construction companies face significant financial risks. The innovation of this article is the first application of the Z-Score financial risk early warning model to China’s listed construction companies, filling the research gap in financial early warning in this field. Previously, the Z-Score model was mainly applied in other industries such as manufacturing, and its application in the construction industry had not been fully explored. By applying the Z-Score model to the construction industry, a new financial risk early warning tool is provided for the industry, helping enterprises identify and respond to potential financial risks more accurately.