基于PVAR模型的民航业与区域经济发展动态关系研究——以江浙沪地区为例

Dynamic Relationship between Civil Aviation Industry and Regional Economic Development Based on PVAR Model—A Case Study of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai

摘要: 民航业作为我国综合交通体系的组成部分之一，对衔接地面和水路运输，构建完整的综合交通网络具有重要作用。其不仅是国民经济的基础产业，还与服务业发展及工业生产息息相关。产业结构理论和聚集辐射理论均表明，民航业在都市圈的形成以及区域经济发展中扮演着重要角色。因此，研究两者之间的动态关系显得尤为重要。本文选取了上海、江苏和浙江两省一市自2000年至2019年的数据，使用熵权法分别构建了衡量经济发展的综合指标和衡量民航业发展的综合指标。并借助stata17.0软件，构建了PVAR (面板向量自回归)模型，并对其进行了格兰杰因果分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。结果表明，经济增长与民航业发展具有双向因果关系，民航业发展对经济发展的作用是长期的正向作用，经济发展对民航业发展的作用是短期的正向作用。

Abstract: The civil aviation industry, as one of the components of China’s integrated transportation system, plays an important role in linking ground and water transportation and building a complete integrated transportation network. It is not only a fundamental industry in the national economy, but also closely related to the development of the service industry and industrial production. The theories of industrial structure and agglomeration and radiation both indicate that the civil aviation industry plays an important role in the formation of urban agglomerations and regional economic development. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the dynamic relationship between them. In this study, we selected data from Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and municipalities from 2000 to 2019 and used the entropy weight method to construct comprehensive indicators of economic development and comprehensive indicators of civil aviation industry development. We then used Stata 17.0 software to construct a PVAR (panel vector autoregression) model and conducted Granger causality analysis, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that economic growth and civil aviation industry development have a two-way causal relationship, and the role of civil aviation industry development in promoting economic development is a long-term positive effect, while the role of economic development in promoting civil aviation industry development is a short-term positive effect.