系统科学在突发公共卫生事件下群体恐慌中的研究综述

Review of Research on System Science in Group Panic during Public Health Emergencies

摘要: 本研究通过系统梳理国内外关于突发公共卫生事件背景下群体恐慌的相关研究，从系统科学的视角综述了情绪传播机制、行为影响及干预策略等方面的核心进展。重点聚焦于经典传染病模型(如SIS、SIR)、双层网络模型及社会力模型等其它系统科学中的方法的应用，分析其在模拟恐慌情绪传播动态过程中的适用性及局限性。研究还探讨了恐慌情绪在应急疏散、物资抢购等实际场景中的传播规律及其对群体行为决策的深远影响。综述表明，现有研究虽在特定领域取得一定进展，但对恐慌情绪的多层次动态传播过程及其系统干预手段的研究仍有不足。未来研究应进一步优化模型结构，整合多学科方法，以揭示群体恐慌的复杂机理，为突发公共卫生事件的群体行为管理和政策制定提供理论支持与实践指导。

Abstract: This study systematically reviews domestic and international research on group panic in the context of public health emergencies from a system science perspective. It highlights key advancements in understanding emotional transmission mechanisms, behavioral impacts, and intervention strategies. Special attention is given to the application of classical epidemic models (e.g., SIS, SIR), multilayer network models, and social force models, analyzing their suitability and limitations in simulating the dynamic processes of panic emotion transmission. The study also explores the propagation patterns of panic emotions in real-world scenarios, such as emergency evacuations and hoarding behavior, as well as their profound impacts on group decision-making. The review reveals that, despite progress in specific areas, existing research falls short in addressing the multi-level dynamic transmission processes of panic emotions and the development of systematic intervention methods. Future research could benefit from optimizing model structures and further integrating multidisciplinary approaches to uncover the complex mechanisms of group panic. These efforts could offer valuable theoretical insights and actionable guidance for managing group behavior and devising effective policies during public health emergencies.