贸易限制措施对中国数字服务出口技术复杂度的影响

The Influence of Trade Restrictions on the Competitiveness of China’s Digital Services Exports

摘要: 在全球数字服务贸易快速扩张与技术竞争加剧的背景下，本文基于2012~2021年各国贸易限制水平与中国数字服务出口数据，构建修正的指数测度中国对70个主要贸易伙伴国的数字服务出口技术复杂度，并采用工具变量法克服内生问题。研究发现：(1) 进口国贸易限制显著抑制中国数字服务出口技术复杂度提升；(2) 贸易限制通过提高双边贸易成本抑制出口技术复杂度，技术创新能削弱贸易限制对出口技术复杂度的抑制效应；(3) 高收入国家限制的抑制强度较弱，未和中国签订自贸协定国家的限制效应较强。研究拓展了出口技术复杂度理论框架，为优化贸易政策、差异化应对国际规则博弈提供实证依据。

Abstract: Against the background of rapid expansion of global digital service trade and intensified technological competition, this paper constructs a modified index to measure the technological complexity of China’s digital service export to 70 major trading partners based on the level of trade restrictions of each country and the data of China’s digital service export from 2012 to 2021, and uses the instrumental variable method to overcome the endogenous problem. The results show that: (1) Trade restrictions of importing countries significantly inhibit the technological complexity of China’s digital service export; (2) Trade restrictions inhibit the technological complexity of export by increasing bilateral trade costs. Technological innovation can weaken the inhibitory effect of trade restrictions on export technology complexity; (3) The restraint strength of restrictions in high-income countries is weak, and the restriction effect in countries that have not signed FTAs is stronger than that in countries that have signed FTAs. This study expands the theoretical framework of export technology complexity, and provides an empirical basis for optimizing trade policy and responding to the international rule game with differentiation.