剑河县近十年气温变化特征分析

Analysis of Temperature Change Characteristics in Jianhe County over the Past Decade

摘要: 本文基于2015~2024年剑河县国家基本气象观测站逐日气温数据，采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均等统计方法，系统分析近十年来年均温、季节气温、极端气温事件的变化特征。结果表明：近十年剑河县年均气温呈显著上升趋势，线性倾向率为0.23℃/10a，尤其在2018年后升温幅度加大；四季气温普遍升高，其中冬季增温最为明显，达0.31℃/10a，春季次之；年平均最高气温与最低气温均呈上升趋势，且最低气温增幅大于最高气温，导致日较差缩小。此外，高温日数(≥35℃)呈波动增加趋势，低温日数(≤0℃)显著减少，极端低温事件发生频率降低，反映出气候变暖背景下冷昼热夜现象加剧。研究揭示了剑河县近十年气温变化的基本规律，为区域气候变化适应策略制定、农业布局调整及生态风险管理提供了科学依据。

Abstract: Under the background of global warming, regional-scale temperature change research is crucial for agriculture, ecological conservation, and public safety. Jianhe County, located in southeastern Guizhou Province, belongs to a subtropical humid monsoon climate zone with complex topography and high climatic sensitivity. Based on daily temperature data from meteorological stations in Jianhe County from 2015 to 2024, this study systematically analyzes interannual variations in annual mean temperature, seasonal temperature, and extreme temperature events using statistical methods such as linear trend analysis and moving average. Results show that the annual mean temperature in Jianhe County has significantly increased over the past decade, with a linear trend rate of 0.23˚C/10a, particularly accelerating after 2018. Temperatures in all seasons have risen, with winter showing the most pronounced increase at 0.31˚C/10a, followed by spring. Both annual average maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit an upward trend, with the minimum temperature increasing more rapidly than the maximum, leading to a reduction in diurnal temperature range. Additionally, the number of hot days (≥35˚C) shows a fluctuating increasing trend, while the number of cold days (≤0˚C) has significantly decreased, indicating reduced frequency of extreme low-temperature events and intensified warm nights and hot days under ongoing climate warming. This study reveals the fundamental patterns of temperature change in Jianhe County over the last ten years, providing scientific support for regional climate adaptation strategies, agricultural planning, and ecological risk management.