化隆县新旧气候态差异分析

Analysis of the Differences between the Old and New Climates in Hualong County

摘要: 基于1966~2022年化隆县国家气象观测站的气温、降水及日照时数观测数据，对比分析新气候态(1991~2020年)与旧气候态(1981~2010年)下化隆县主要气象要素的差异特征，并探讨气候态更替对当地气候业务的潜在影响。结果表明：新气候态下化隆县年平均气温较旧气候态显著升高，增温幅度为0.4℃，各月气温均呈上升趋势，其中11月增温最明显；年降水量总体偏多17.5 mm，降水变化呈显著的月际不均一性，夏季增湿显著，春季和秋季偏干，极端降水事件发生概率增加；年日照时数较旧气候态明显减少，减少幅度达2327.9 h，且多数月份日照时数呈下降趋势。气候态更替对化隆县气候影响评价、短期气候预测及公众气候服务均产生一定影响，需针对差异显著的时段和要素开展针对性业务调整。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours from the National Meteorological Observation Station of Hualong County from 1966 to 2022, the difference characteristics of the main meteorological elements of Hualong County under the new climate state (1991~2020) and the old climate state (1981~2010) are compared and analyzed, and the potential impact of climate change on local climate operations is discussed. The results show that: under the new climate state, the average annual temperature in Hualong County has increased significantly compared to the old climate state, with a temperature increase of 0.4˚C, and the temperature in each month has shown an upward trend, of which the temperature increase in November is the most obvious; the annual precipitation is generally more than 17.5 mm, and the precipitation changes show significant monthly unevenness. Summer humidification is significant, spring and autumn are drier, and the probability of extreme precipitation events increases; the number of annual sunshine hours is significantly reduced compared to the old climate state, with a decrease of 2327.9 h, and the number of sunshine hours in most months is on a downward trend. Climate change has a certain impact on the climate impact assessment, short-term climate prediction and public climate services in Hualong County, and targeted business adjustments need to be made for time periods and elements with significant differences.