基于多因素回归分析黄河流域地铁建设水土流失特性研究

Research on the Characteristics of Soil Erosion in Metro Construction in the Yellow River Basin Based on Multivariate Regression Analysis

摘要: 随着城市化进程与交通需求的发展，地铁建设在城市化建设中效果显著，在江河流域城市中，地铁的建设会改变地形地貌、扰动土壤、破坏原有植被、造成水土流失，引发如堵塞河道、污染水质等严重的水土问题。为研究黄河流域城市地铁建设的水土流失特性，定量评估地铁建设时期水土流失程度，得到多种因素对地铁车辆段建设水土流失的影响规律。采用插钎法、径流小区法监测黄河流经地区地铁建设项目车辆段边坡及周围道路水土流失情况，利用SPSS、Origin软件对监测结果进行回归分析，建立径流小区产砂量的多元逐步回归模型。研究表明：车辆段插钎区域土壤流失量与月降雨的回归方程为y = 10.04176 + 0.00911x；车辆段径流小区产沙量的多元逐步回归模型方程为y = 257.729 − 1.107x₄ + 0.426x₁，其中自变量为降雨量和土壤厚度。表明地铁建设时期土壤受到扰动更易发生水土流失，降雨量的增大使得车辆段道路周围土壤高度降低，水土流失严重。降雨量与土壤厚度是径流小区产砂量的主要影响因素，边坡坡度与植被覆盖率为次要影响因素。建议在黄河流经地区的地铁建设水土保持工作中，做好降雨预警、及时增加临时防护措施；保护现有土壤、规划土方调配、适当增加土层厚度是最有效的措施。

Abstract: With the development of urbanization and transportation demands, the construction of subways has achieved remarkable results in urbanization. In cities along river basins, the construction of subways can alter the topography and landforms, disturb the soil, damage the original vegetation, cause soil erosion, and lead to serious soil and water problems such as blocking rivers and polluting water quality. By employing the erosion pin and runoff plot methods to monitor soil and water loss on depot slopes and surrounding roads of subway construction projects in the Yellow River Basin, this study aims to characterize soil erosion, quantitatively evaluate its severity during the construction period, and identify the underlying patterns influenced by various factors. The monitoring results were analyzed by regression using SPSS and Origin software, and a multiple stepwise regression model for the sand production of the runoff plot was established. The research shows that the regression equation of soil loss in the vehicle depot brazing area and monthly rainfall is y = 10.04176 + 0.00911x; The multiple stepwise regression model equation for the sediment yield of the vehicle depot runoff plot is y = 257.729 − 1.107x₄ + 0.426x₁, where the independent variables are rainfall and soil thickness. It indicates that during the subway construction period, the soil is more prone to soil erosion due to disturbance. The increase in rainfall leads to a decrease in the soil height around the vehicle depot roads, resulting in severe soil erosion. Rainfall and soil thickness are the main influencing factors of sand production in runoff plots, while slope gradient and vegetation coverage rate are secondary influencing factors. It is suggested that in the soil and water conservation work of metro construction in the areas through which the Yellow River flows, proper rainfall warnings should be issued and temporary protective measures should be added in a timely manner. Protecting the existing soil, planning the earthwork allocation and appropriately increasing the thickness of the soil layer are the most effective measures.