湖南省湘江流域土地利用时空演变及多情景模拟研究

Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use in the Xiang River Basin, Hunan Province

摘要: 为明晰湘江流域土地利用变化特点，量化不同发展路径对区域土地利用结构的影响，本文基于湘江流域2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年和2023年六期土地利用数据，综合运用重心迁移模型、土地利用转移矩阵和PLUS模型等方法，系统分析流域土地利用时空演变特征，构建自然发展、城镇发展与生态保护三种情景，模拟预测2035年土地利用格局。结果表明：(1) 2000~2023年，湘江流域耕地减少1748.47 km²，建设用地增加1666.08 km²，林地保持相对稳定，草地面积持续下降；空间上，耕地重心北移、林地重心西南移、建设用地重心先东北后南移，反映出开发重心由下游向中上游转移；土地利用转移矩阵显示耕地主要转为建设用地。(2) 至2035年，三种情景下均呈现出建设用地均持续扩张、耕地持续流失的态势，其中城镇发展情景下建设用地扩张强度最大，生态保护情景对生态用地保护效果最优，能有效缓解生态空间压缩。本研究丰富了土地利用变化模拟在流域尺度的应用范式，为湘江流域国土空间优化与高质量发展提供了科学依据。

Abstract: To clarify the characteristics of land use changes in the Xiang River Basin and quantify the impact of different development paths on regional land use structure, this study is based on six periods of land use data from the Xiang River Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2023. By integrating methods such as the gravity center migration model, land use transfer matrix, and PLUS model, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use in the basin were systematically analyzed. Three scenarios—natural development, urban development, and ecological protection—were established to simulate and predict the land use pattern in 2035. The results show: (1) From 2000 to 2023, cropland in the Xiang River Basin decreased by 1748.47 km², construction land increased by 1666.08 km², forest land remained relatively stable, and grassland area continued to decline. Spatially, the center of cropland moved north, the center of forest land shifted southwest, and the center of construction land first moved northeast and then south, reflecting that the focus of development has shifted from downstream to mid-upper reaches. The land use transfer matrix indicates that cropland has mainly been converted into construction land. (2) By 2035, under all three scenarios, construction land continues to expand, and cropland continues to decrease, with urban development showing the highest intensity of construction land expansion, while ecological protection best preserves ecological land and effectively alleviates the compression of ecological space. This study enriches the application paradigm of land use change simulation at the watershed scale and provides a scientific basis for optimizing territorial space and promoting high-quality development in the Xiang River Basin.